Demonetisation & Me

मैं और demonetisation अक्सर ये बाते करते हैं

की अगर तुम ना होते तो ऐसा होता

अगर तुम ना होते तो वैसा होता  

I was playing baddy when I came to know about this move of “Demonetisation” and since then this has remained a buzz word for me.  I missed the opportunity to listen to PM at 2000 hrs but was instantaneously convinced by this idea.

Though I was supporting the idea but had a situation to manage as a function was planned on 13^th with estimated expense of 30 K. I had no cash available and  could not see any source to arrange new currency in 5 days. But thanks to the caterer and the decorator, who were considerate enough to provide me credit period of 10 days, by then I managed some cash and rest was transferred online. Snehal endured 3 hours long que to get cash on 10^th or 11^th day and it was definitely not easy for her.

Despite experiencing trouble myself and seeing many other issues arising out of demonetisation, I will still on board. Many will call it as a “Bhakt-Syndrome” or “Blind following” etc, but to me it was simply an interesting game changing attempt by CEO of India Inc. I liked it mostly because I felt it was a curious business decision to take-on the rivals with a surprise. Certainly a-lot of things were put at risk by PM and only time will prove how much premium he gets as a return.

As mentioned by PM, it is an attempt to counter “Black money” but there are many other benefits of the move kept mostly as a back up or Plan B (one can not open all his cards at the beginning itself and this ambiguity is a key for such decisions). The other benefits as per me could be /are

                          a)   Ruling out fake currency

                 b)  Make accumulated funds of Naxlites and terrorists worthless

                           c)  Push for cashless

               d)  Financial gain due to wind fall gain for RBI

                e) Revoking of BPL status for many

                f) Infusion of liquidity to the Banks

On the 31^st day of demonetisation drive a,b,c,e & f of the above have been accomplished while d appears to be failing miserably and black money also has not been realised to a great extent. But this is still a early judgment as IT scrutiny of the accounts and the raids are continuing. Unless and until the complete balance sheet is settled , it is not right to stamp “Demonetisation” as failure or success.

But there were few other gains too 

                     a)  Opening of Jan Dhan accounts for Tea workers ~ 20 lac, 

                                 these were not opened in the mass drive.

                                               b)  Activation and utilisation of idle Jan dhan accounts

                                               c)  Reduction in Stone pelting incidences in J&K.

There are few or many more like this which can’t be monetised to gauge the benefits.

Now coming to the pain or hardship part of the decision, yes I do sympathies with those who have suffered and agree that it was at no fault of theirs. But as mentioned above it is a part of a decision.

Each decision has its pro’s and con’s, hence this step can’t be any different. GOI was made to put on a very slippery turf and they were reacting to the situation to best of their abilities.

Could it have been better?

Yes there is always a better way for everything but its easy to say this in hindsight. Response was fast and innovative too.

a)      Cash withdrawal from petrol pumps/ big bazaar

b)      Wedding card based additional money withdrawal

c)       Seeds for Farmers with old notes

These were evolving as per the realized needs and to offer ease to maximum junta and now it can be claimed that it would have been done in a better way.

One never fails; he either wins or learns in any of the endeavors...

My prediction is that even after 30^th Dec, there will be restriction on the cash transaction and it will be pushed for cashless transactions.

No doubt GDP will shrink for a quarter or so but this will bounce back soon.

Note: I have deliberately not touched the sad demises of people due to hassles of demonetisation, full sympathy with them and their families.